Social Media in Crisis: Are we twits for using Twitter?!: A Guest Contribution

Are we twits for using Twitter?!

This week I welcome a guest contribution from Tomer Simon. Tomer is an Israel based specialist in disaster and emergency management, a social media in emergency management (#smem) researcher and practitioner, public health professional and geophysicist. A full biographical profile can be found below.

  -- Steven Kuhr

Social media as a research tool and resource has become an invaluable source of information, especially so in crisis management informatics. Hundreds of researchers worldwide have been using Twitter to extract huge amounts of data in order to identify perceptions concerning the use patterns and behavior of individuals during many emergency and crisis situations.

Twitter is not the only social media network and definitely not the largest or the most widely used. Current statistics show that there are approximately 500 million global users on Twitter, but only 200 million are monthly active users. Facebook, on the other hand, recently released that it had reached the 1.11 billion users globally, with 665 million daily active users. As can be seen in the following map, Facebook dominates in 127 out 137 countries worldwide.

So, why do researchers still use Twitter as their social media resource of choice? When we refer to 'social media' do we actually focus on Twitter alone? The simplistic answer is that Twitter provides an easy to use application program interface (API) for data extraction. Furthermore, the essence of Twitter differs from Facebook. Whereas in Facebook the post can be accessed solely by one's friends, or friends of friends, in Twitter the tweets can be accessed by all, and not only followers.

It has been presented in many studies that individuals, in emergencies, tweet information that can be used by the emergency authorities to improve their situational awareness. They also share important information concerning their community, raise donations and share sympathies and prayers, as well as call for help. These types of information are important and can assist during the response and relief phases of the disaster management. But, does it really reflect the realities – the one on the ground and the one collected from the virtual domain?

According to the Huffington Post, during hurricane Sandy, approximately 17 million people on the east coast were affected. The current US population includes almost 316 million people. It is estimated that in the US alone there are 140 million Twitter users, out of which only a third are active on a monthly basis. This leaves approximately 50 million active users across the USA. For convenience it will be assumed that a third of the users are on the east coast, a third on the west and a third spread through the rest. A third means 17 million users out of a total of 117 million people living across the eastern sea board. So, until now we are left with a tenth of the entire population that uses Twitter once a month (people who use it on a daily basis are a fraction of this number).

Despite Twitter's presumed openness, many limitations prevail on the amount of data that can be extracted or the time intervals of extraction[1]. Even on the new 1.1 API Twitter has imposed limitations that inhibit the possibility to extract all of the required information.

Another way to extract data is through the Twitter stream API. But, this is limited to approx. 1% of the entire stream.

What can we learn from the usage statistics Twitter had released during hurricane Sandy?

During the seven day period of October 27^th until November 1^st a total of approx. 1.4 billion tweets were disseminated globally. A total of 20 million tweets were sent during the same period with the terms "sandy" and/or "hurricane", meaning only 1.4% of the entire stream. If we choose to use the API stream then we will get only 1.4% out the 1% stream respectively, which leaves us with a potential use of 0.0014% of the tweets to work with.Many studies rely also on the geo-tagging capabilities of tweets, but current research shows that only 2-3% of tweets are geocoded.

Tweeting requires expertise; occasional users will find it difficult to convey useful/actionable information with 140 characters. Research shows that users which are proficient in Twitter usually tweet, and will tweet in an emergency, more than once a day, but many of the tweets originate from people that are not personally involved in the emergency. So once more we are left with even less unique users to work with.

Considering the above mentioned constraints, how can academic research be conducted when it is not possible to generalize the findings to the population? Is it beneficial to conduct research based only on online users who have a Twitter account and are proficient in using it? Academia aside, can we as emergency managers rely on so little information when we try to build a status report? Can we act and send emergency personnel and resources to the field following a tweet or a post?

Maybe those who can tweet are not the ones in the worst situation that require assistance, after all their "ABC's" are probably ok.

---

[1] This is based on the assumption that the extracting application uses a single Twitter token and adheres to the Twitter terms of use.

About the contributor:
Tomer Simon, MPH, is a Ph.D. candidate at the Emergency Medicine Department, in the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. He is the enterprise architect of the Israeli Ministry of Justice, and founder and coordinator of Israel's largest website for emergency preparedness and readiness (http://ready.org.il). In the last three years Simon has specialized in emergency management and especially leveraging social media for disaster preparedness and response. His bachelor degree (B.Sc.) is in Geophysics, and a graduate degree in public health (MPH) from Tel Aviv University. For the 13 years he held various IT positions, and led and managed a large R&D group in a leading multi-national company. He is a Major (res.) in the IDF's Homefront Command.

--
Steven Kuhr
Emergency Management Nexus
Disaster History
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The Emergency "Weather" Manager

Emergency Managers and Meteorology  
As the Midwest was gripped with a significant severe storm situation yesterday, and with more significant severe weather forecast today, the issue of meteorological knowledge and the emergency manager comes to mind. Emergency managers must be a disaster Jack-of-All-Trades which means that they must be adroit at managing all risks and threats their jurisdiction can be confronted with. While many risks may be confronted from time to time, severe and extremes of weather are hazards which emergency managers must deal with on a regular basis. 

Meteorological Education and Training
How does the emergency manager collect, analyze, and understand meteorological information so as to implement an actionable course of action in advance of a severe weather event or during a sudden onset storm? To answer this the emergency manager should have formal training in the meteorological sciences. Training curricula designed to orient emergency managers to the basics of weather science, the nuances and characteristics of severe weather and extremes of weather, and best, proven practices in preparedness in advance of a significant weather event, actionable results-oriented response strategies, and effective and time-based recovery strategies can help emergency managers frame a significant weather program and moreover, have more than a rudimentary understanding of weather events as they are occurring. A number of training courses exist such as the FEMA Independent Study Course IS-271.A: Anticipating Hazardous Weather & Community Risk, 2nd Edition. This is a great start, however I would add to this formal classroom or webinar based training provided jointly by meteorologists who have a healthy understanding of the role, mandates, and stresses of the emergency management community and seasoned weather worn emergency management leaders. The National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Coordination Meteorologists (WCM) would be especially experienced and skilled at providing this training. Over the course of my career I have had the pleasure to work side-by-side with WCM's at five separate NWS forecast offices, each of which were highly skilled in coordinating with the emergency management community in a way that led to actionable approaches to weather events.

Meteorological Intelligence
Allow me to offer a number of approaches for emergency managers to consider in developing an actionable extreme weather program:

• Meteorological Intelligence Cell (MIC): Activated in advance of a significant weather event or immediately during a no-notice extreme weather event, the MIC will serve as technical analysis group which collects, analyzes, synthesizes, and produces user friendly weather and risk products for use by the emergency management community in planning and implementing an extreme weather response. Products developed would include extreme weather briefings and executive summaries, graphical products using GIS technology to predict the behavior of a storm or weather pattern, and then using the data to provide risk layers to develop GIS products which demonstrate population risk, critical infrastructure risk, potential power outages and associated risks such as vulnerable and special needs populations, and the graphical display of asset deployments such as human service/mass care teams, logistics packages, and utility trucks.  

• Staffing the MIC: A number of options exist with regard to staffing an MIC. For one, where funding permits, I am a proponent of emergency management agencies employing a meteorologist to serve as a senior advisor to the emergency management leadership team and to serve as the MIC leader. A strong relationship with the NWS WCM is necessary. The WCM, usually responsible for multiple counties and jurisdictions in a forecast area, can participate in the MIC virtually via webinar, video- or tele-conference. Another option resides in the university system. Teaming with universities with meteorologic and atmospheric science programs can be valuable in having meteorologists who might be researchers or educators, support an MIC as well as meteorologic and atmospheric science interns. I had a wonderful experience at one point with meteorological interns who worked the summer months, the peak of severe weather season. On a daily basis the interns ran a research project on public response to flood warnings, however during times of severe weather they staffed the EOC and provided technical advisement and products to the leadership team. Many agencies that emergency managers work with routinely also have meteorologists on staff. This may be transportation or environmental agencies, and others. These meteorologists should be leveraged and asked to be a part of the MIC on an as needed or rotational basis.

As with any other risk and hazard, emergency managers must make maximum use of the knowledge, skills, and abilities of people within and external to the emergency management organization to ensure that they have the maximum intelligence needed to develop effective course of actions for impending or occurring crises. Add in some formal training and the emergency manager becomes that more powerful as a crisis coordinator and leader.  

I look forward to your input and discussion on this and all blog topics.

--
Steven Kuhr
Emergency Management Nexus
Disaster History
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disasterhx.blogspot.com
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New NHC Products - A Summary

With hurricane season just around  the corner, I thought I would take a minute and summarize the the new National Hurricane Center products which will be implemented for the 2013 season. The names for the 2013 Atlantic season are also included herein.

Tropical Cyclone Update
The TCU will be now issued to announce significant changes in storm intelligence during period between regularly scheduled advisories. The TCU will also provide a flow of information regarding storm characteristics such as the location of the center of the storm during periods when watches and warnings are in effect.

Advisories, Watches and Warnings for Post-Tropical Systems
Advisories, Watches and Warnings will now be used to provide information on storms even if they become post-tropical in nature. This will allow for the continuity of information provided to the public as well as continuity in product development between the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.

Hurricane Watches and Warnings
Watches and Warnings will be issued 36 hours and 48 hours respectively in advance of the forecast arrival of hurricane force winds (74 MPH) and will now include post-tropical systems.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings
Watches and Warnings will be issued 36 hours and 48 hours respectively in advance of the forecast arrival of tropical storm force winds (39 MPH) and will also now include post-tropical systems.

Comment: This change is a positive approach to ensuring that the threats and hazards associated with tropical systems are continuous and provided in a way in which emergency managers and the public are accustomed to receiving them. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
The Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) will be extended from 48 hours to five (5) days, pending completion of technical issues associated with this. NOAA expects to begin the five day TWO sometime during July or August. See here for more details.

Audio Podcasts
Podcasts will be available upon activation of the media pool which generally occurs on the issuance of a Hurricane Watch.

Storm Surge Products
Probabilistic Storm Surge products will be available when a Hurricane Watch or Warnings has been issued for any part of the U.S. coast.

2013 Atlantic Storm Names 
Andrea, Barry, Chantal
Dorian, Erin, Fernand
Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid
Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo
Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo
Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya
Van, Wendy

--
Steven Kuhr
Emergency Management Nexus
Disaster History
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See Something - Do Nothing?

Yesterday the nation was captivated by breaking news about three young women and a child who escaped captivity after being kidnapped about 10 years ago. There is some controversy now about whether community residents took notice of suspicious activity and called police. A Chicago Tribune report discusses this issue in which some conflict exists as to whether anyone had information which could have led to earlier police action to free the victims. This brings to mind the tragic and popular March 1964 story of Kitty Genovese who was stabbed and sexually assaulted near her Queens, NY apartment building while multiple bystanders took no action help her. The correlation to Cleveland is not too far of a stretch. There is a field of academic study on situations such as this. Social scientists call this the Bystander Affect which, in summary, suggests that in times of a crisis, the more people present will result in less people taking action for a number of reasons including a diffusion of responsibility (when more are present) and behaving in a socially acceptable way (when less people are present).

The connection to homeland security and emergency management comes when we look at today's efforts to have the public participate in security by serving as observers and reporters. The  See Something Say Something program which began in New York has gone national in partnership with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Considering the Bystander Effect, a question comes to mind as to whether we can rely on the public to say something if they see something or simply see something and do nothing. There is some data out there which shows that while numerous calls are made to terror tip hotlines, See Something Say Something has led to zero terrorist arrests.  Is that the only metric in which to gauge the program? I would add that calls regarding suspicious packages such as an unattended backpack on a subway platform, is a valuable metric. Then we can add a separate indicator as to what the outcome of the call and investigation was. Was the suspicious package an explosive device or just some kid's school books? Let me turn to the Boston terrorist bombings. It is unclear whether the public would have had enough reaction time even if someone saw the backpacks, however, this incident should serve as a stark reminder of how valuable saying something if you see something can be. The street vendor who reported a suspicious auto in Times Square in May 2010 is an example of someone seeing something and saying something.

We all have a role in public safety and security. In the wake of the Boston bombings and with the Cleveland incident in mind, we need to amplify our efforts to enlist the help of the public in reporting suspicious activity and suspicious packages. While I am not suggesting a siege mentality, the reality is that security and law enforcement assets are reliant upon good information. That information comes from an aware, informed and, participating citizenry.

Steven Kuhr
Emergency Management Nexus
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Preparedness Campaigns: Now is a Good Time!

In reading an article this morning entitle "County to Host Emergency 2013 Preparedness Conference" a thought comes to mind regarding the annual preparedness month which is in September.  The county has decided to use the approaching hurricane season to advance public preparedness outreach.  In support of this effort they have secured the assistance of a number of agencies and organizations at the local and state level.  The spring and summer seasons bring with them a host of hazards such as severe weather, tornado activity, extreme heat events, and of course tropical storms and hurricanes.  With this in mind, conducting public outreach now is a prudent approach which emergency managers should take notice of and consider implementing in their jurisdictions.

Kudos to the folks in Cape May, NJ!

Steven Kuhr
Emergency Management Nexus
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Personal Preparedness 2.0

With the weather hazards of spring and summer upon us, hurricane season approaching, and with the ever present risk of terrorism and technical hazards, it seems like a good time to evaluate personal preparedness.  There have been many programs and much written over the past decade or so ago about personal preparedness.  Programs such as the DHS Ready website offer suggestions for making family emergency plans, assembling emergency kits, and storing emergency supplies.  The theme has typically been preparedness for 72 hours.  However, is 72 hours adequate?  In writing this piece let us assume that we all understand what belongs in a typical emergency kit such as canned food, flashlights, and a weather radio.  Having these items are crucial to lessening the hardships of disasters and in some cases actually increase the chance of survival in truly major events.  I would argue however, that 72 hours is insufficient especially in a catastrophic event which has affected multiple regions and a large population base.  In cases such as wide area earthquakes and hurricanes, or perhaps a mega-tornado swarm affecting multiple areas, perhaps even multiple states, government resources at all levels with be taxed as time continues to demonstrate.  While incidents such as these may seem rare, we need only look at recent major hurricanes and earthquakes to see that individuals need to be prepared for a greater period of time.  With this in mind, it would appear that a seven to ten day model of preparedness might be in order.  This can be accomplished by amplifying what we have in our 72 hours kits, especially for food items, water, medications and batteries.

It also seems logical to discuss personal preparedness in today’s high tech world.  The ready.wherever checklists generally do not discuss technology that may be at your fingertips for those of us with iO and Android smart phones, tablets and the like.  While I realize that the use of technology requires that infrastructure such as electrical, landline, and cellular systems remain operational, there are many tools in the technology tool box that you can have for immediate use.  While none of the suggestions below should be considered a commercial endorsement, here is a brief list of tech tools which you may find useful in disasters:

• Subscriber based Alerts – Be sure to subscribe to emergency alerts which may be available in your area.  These systems are generally managed by local emergency management agencies.    As a side note, smart phone users can expect government non-subscriber based Wireless Emergency Alerts for urgent weather alerts such as flood and tornado warnings which are intended to encourage users to take protective actions.

• Weather Apps – The use of NOAA Weather Radios are essential during significant weather events.  A number of apps exist which allow you to monitor NOAA National Weather Service Offices and their alerts.  A number of commercial weather apps are also available from our friends at The Weather Channel, Accu-Weather, Weather Underground and more, which provide timely and accurate information along with weather graphics.  Many also offer push alerting capability which allows you to receive weather watches and warnings.  There are also a number of radar apps which provide actionable information for emergency managers. 

• Flashlight apps – There are a number of flashlight apps which turn the phone’s light into a fairly intense beam.  Some of these apps also allow you to set various settings such as strobe light or flashing light type setting which can be used for safety or alerting.

• Communications Apps – The ability to communicate during a disaster is typically a challenge.  Today’s technology environment offers a number of options for voice and data communications.  For video chat and voice communications such as Voice over IP technology, apps such as Skype and Tango offer voice and video chat options.  The Google+ app also allows you to do a “Hangout” which is essentially a video chat.  The social media apps we use every day such as Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn also provide a number of communications options.  Whatsapp is a user friendly communications tool which allows text messaging over non-cellular based internet such as WiFi.  This means that if cellular systems are down and you are fortunate to have internet access this and a number of other apps will function.  A number of walkie-talkie apps such as Voxer offer push-to-talk voice communications.  

• Portable Energy – We all know how quickly our smart phones consume battery life.  Today’s emergency kits should also include a portable energy source for charging smart phones.  One simply needs to search for portable cellular charger to find a number of commercial options.

As with all apps, every app has its strengths and weaknesses. The use of some of these apps also require some planning such as ensuring that family members know to have video chat or walkie talkie apps turned on.  

Today’s high tech world offers a number of options which can help us navigate the difficulties of a major emergency or disaster.

Steven Kuhr

Emergency Management Nexus

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30 Days!

Today is May 1.  Hurricane season is just a short 30 days away.  Our friends at Colorado State University, who have been making hurricane predictions for 30 years, suggest that the 2013 Atlantic season will be above average with 18 named storms.  Their report indicates that nine of these storms will reach hurricane status and that four of these will become major hurricanes.

It is not too late to make plans and design programs and protective measures to safeguard people and property.  For government agencies, you can work closely with your jurisdiction's Emergency Management Agency (EMA) to build capability to monitor storms, support overall response and recovery efforts, and to build capacity to protect your agency's operations, people, and assets. Similarly, businesses can work with their EMA to support response efforts.  Many EMAs are now integrating businesses into emergency responses through Business Emergency Operations Centers or simply by having businesses represented on planning councils and in the Emergency Operations Center during a crisis.  Businesses should focus on protective measures for their workforce and material assets and resiliency through business continuity strategies.

Storms repeatedly demonstrate the destruction they can bring.  Spending some time now to prepare and make plans can help reduce risk to people and property.

Steven Kuhr
Emergency Management Nexus
skuhr.blogspot.com